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Where Will Boat/'Toon Pricing Go as the Pandemic Recedes?

RiverDave

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I don’t really see the pandemic having an affect on prices other than driving them up. I think fuel prices are going to play a large part in what happens in the future..

you sure you don’t want my used toon? It’s got like 2 hours on it. 🤪. No wait / no sales tax!

You are right about the prices skyrocketing.. 😳. I have a friend that was gonna sell his twin 300 toon for 100k a little while back. I saw it listed for 160’s, won’t surprise me if he gets near that when summer comes.
 

TPC

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We've stepped back for now.
No one wants to own anything they paid too much for. Especially way too much and everyone knows it - especially the wife.

We like to buy new.
We'll throw some offers out there at boat show displays, leave our contact number and maybe they'll call us if the floor model doesn't move at the show. It's worked before.
Twin Cities Boat Show starts the 15th.

Heart set on 400's.
BTW 450's are twice the price of 400's now.
 
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gqchris

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Wait until the foreclosure moratorium gets lifted in June. A couple finance guys are saying its going to make 2010 look like child's play.

I agree. But the way things are going, they will just extend this date. Just like unemployment, these idiots keep getting it pushed again and again. No one has any idea when the time will actual come.
 
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HB2Havasu

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Bigger the rise. Bigger the fall. What goes up must come down.
1615479512632.png
 

mesquito_creek

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With the Federal reserve recently stating that inflation is on the way, I don't think high levels of home and home equity debt will play out like it did during the great recession. Debt and Inflation are Economics 101. You pay off debt in the future with inflated cheap dollars. Money isn't worth as much following inflation, debts are also not worth as much in an inflationary future, so $162,000 in debt is not as big a deal in that future as it would be today. In other words, being a borrower during an inflationary period is actually a powerful inflation hedge. Given that the republicans added 7 trillion to the debt the past 4 years and the democrats just added 2 more in the first 2 months... I believe that Pontoon owners who have jobs that are not impacted by the covid/recession will actually have the chance to pay off those boat with cheap inflated dollars earned through inflated investment returns and wages.
 
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Boat 405

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Cash out refinance.... In theory it's a great way to add value to your home, remodel, addition, whatever... But most people aren't doing that, they are just buying toys when they see the $$$ in their bank account.

It's coming.... 2007 all over again. Just saying, there will be an unknown trigger as always. That foreclosure moratorium expiration will mix things up....
 
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Your ad here

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Cash out refinance.... In theory it's a great way to add value to your home, remodel, addition, whatever... But most people aren't doing that, they are just buying toys when they see the $$$ in their bank account.

It's coming.... 2007 all over again. Just saying, there will be an unknown trigger as always. That foreclosure moratorium expiration will mix things up....
Instead of reinvesting into an item that will appreciate in value, people are investing into new items that depreciate in value. Right now those depreciating items are overpriced... Best time to buy is when they're on sale.
 

ONE-A-DAY

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Cash out refinance.... In theory it's a great way to add value to your home, remodel, addition, whatever... But most people aren't doing that, they are just buying toys when they see the $$$ in their bank account.

It's coming.... 2007 all over again. Just saying, there will be an unknown trigger as always. That foreclosure moratorium expiration will mix things up....
Makes complete sense, add a pool or kitchen to the home, increase the value of the place. Buying a boat, diesel pusher etc., doesnt fall into the same smart category.
 

mesquito_creek

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Boats and Diesel pushers are only bad if you can't afford them. If you worked for 30 years, planned and saved with a goal to buy a pusher and tow a boat around country, you don't stop because you think your neighbors are upside down financially. You adapt your purchase plan to the current environment. I personally always valued the concept of paying cash for toys, but if I was in the market right now to execute my retirement plan that included a pusher, by all means I would be looking into financing a pusher at 3% on my first position mortgage. Then I would be thinking about paying it off with those COLA adjusted and inflated investment return dollars!
 

caribbean20

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With the Federal reserve recently stating that inflation is on the way, I don't think high levels of home and home equity debt will play out like it did during the great recession. Debt and Inflation are Economics 101. You pay off debt in the future with inflated cheap dollars. Money isn't worth as much following inflation, debts are also not worth as much in an inflationary future, so $162,000 in debt is not as big a deal in that future as it would be today. In other words, being a borrower during an inflationary period is actually a powerful inflation hedge. Given that the republicans added 7 trillion to the debt the past 4 years and the democrats just added 2 more in the first 2 months... I believe that Pontoon owners who have jobs that are not impacted by the covid/recession will actually have the chance to pay off those boat with cheap inflated dollars earned through inflated investment returns and wages.
This theory only holds true if the person’s income goes up by a commensurate amount. Which may or may not happen. I think inflation and budget deficits will cause interest rates to rise and money shifts from equities to fixed income. The kind of person who does a refi to buy a boat aint the kind of person to have investments in fixed income, and there goes the “inflated investment returns” part of the equation.

The music is going to stop and we all know what happens to toy prices in a recession. This crazy government spending can’t last forever, just how long who knows.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Cash out refinance.... In theory it's a great way to add value to your home, remodel, addition, whatever... But most people aren't doing that, they are just buying toys when they see the $$$ in their bank account.

It's coming.... 2007 all over again. Just saying, there will be an unknown trigger as always. That foreclosure moratorium expiration will mix things up....

What makes you think that moratorium will expire? It is just an excuse (the perfect one) for the .gov to keep giving monies to their buddies on Wall Street.
 
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mesquito_creek

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This theory only holds true if the person’s income goes up by a commensurate amount. Which may or may not happen. I think inflation and budget deficits will cause interest rates to rise and money shifts from equities to fixed income. The kind of person who does a refi to buy a boat aint the kind of person to have investments in fixed income, and there goes the “inflated investment returns” part of the equation.

The music is going to stop and we all know what happens to toy prices in a recession. This crazy government spending can’t last forever, just how long who knows.

What about the kind of person who uses a refi to buy a boat because they are in peak earning years and paying 15% + 3.8% Medicare surcharge for a total of 18.3% cap gain tax. Future cap gains tax for said person could be 0% if is played right. The avg return on the S&P 500 for the past 10 years is 13.6%, so why I would I run away from 3% interest?

Why does a persons income have to go up to pay an affordable 30 or 15 year fixed mortgage? I have been paying down the same fixed mortgage for 23 years? Its a joke in terms of my income, I couldn't even rent my house for 3 times what I pay on the mortgage? I think some people assume everyone is on the ragged edge. If you have a million dollars of equity in RE I wouldn't think twice about using 150K to buy a toy, especially if you have a 150K on the side earning interest if you need to pull a parachute on your debt for some unknown reason.

BTW, I sort of agree with you, I have paid cash for property in the past and people make fun of me... But right now I would not run away from reasonable fixed debt like 3-4 % mortgages. I have live through 4 recessions (1990, 2000, 2007 and the current covid recession)... I give about zero fcks to the thought of future recessions knowing they are coming and baked into solid conservative financial planning.
 

Boat 405

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A few catalysts I see for a big market correction.
Foreclosure / Eviction moratorium ending
Rise in interest rates
Government printing money as fast as they can causing massive inflation.
Buying depreciating assists with cash out refinance $$
Just wait until they pull Diablo canyon offline. Electric rates will skyrocket.
Ripple effect from this bullshit pandemic with the education and healthcare system.

All the people saying it wouldn’t happen in 2007 are now saying the same thing.

Its cyclical. 14 years later we just have a new generation of people who were too young to understand what happened before. And the others forget way too easily. You have the YOLO crowd buying vacation homes, boats, RVs, toys for way above market value.

I saw a 3/2 2000 sq ft in havasu with no pool just gravel backyard just sold for $810k. 😂 good luck
 
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mesquito_creek

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If you cash out refinance your home to make home improvements that is still a depreciating asset... Just go look at my 10 year old Tuscan style Kitchen. LOL

Even in 2007-2008 when boats were supposedly "cheap", they were too expense for me! So I don't think that Pontoons will go down dramatically, since they serve such a well rounded purpose. Most 150K pontoon owners will ride out the dip on their pontoon boat. But like always there will be deals and stressed sales available. Even those deals the insiders and professionals will most likely be best positioned to take advantage.
 
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Sherpa

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I’ve got a feeling within 2-3 years those toys are gonna be for sale. Covid buyers lives return to normal, and that $140k wakeboard boat isn’t getting used anymore
 
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caribbean20

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What about the kind of person who uses a refi to buy a boat because they are in peak earning years and paying 15% + 3.8% Medicare surcharge for a total of 18.3% cap gain tax. Future cap gains tax for said person could be 0% if is played right. The avg return on the S&P 500 for the past 10 years is 13.6%, so why I would I run away from 3% interest?

Why does a persons income have to go up to pay an affordable 30 or 15 year fixed mortgage? I have been paying down the same fixed mortgage for 23 years? Its a joke in terms of my income, I couldn't even rent my house for 3 times what I pay on the mortgage? I think some people assume everyone is on the ragged edge. If you have a million dollars of equity in RE I wouldn't think twice about using 150K to buy a toy, especially if you have a 150K on the side earning interest if you need to pull a parachute on your debt for some unknown reason.

BTW, I sort of agree with you, I have paid cash for property in the past and people make fun of me... But right now I would not run away from reasonable fixed debt like 3-4 % mortgages. I have live through 4 recessions (1990, 2000, 2007 and the current covid recession)... I give about zero fcks to the thought of future recessions knowing they are coming and baked into solid conservative financial planning.
I was only responding to your point about inflation and paying off debt with cheaper dollars. That only holds true if your income goes up, otherwise, you still have to pay back that dollar.

Oh, and BTW, max LTCG tax rate is 20%, not 15%, and you also have to add state taxes, if applicable.

Otherwise, we are probably in violent agreement.
 

NicPaus

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Pontoons are going for msrp or over just like RVs. Recall 5 years ago most rvs were 40% off msrp. Probably be the same in a few years. Supply and demand currently driving up the market on everything.
 

Boat 405

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Pontoons are going for msrp or over just like RVs. Recall 5 years ago most rvs were 40% off msrp. Probably be the same in a few years. Supply and demand currently driving up the market on everything.

If you pay MSRP on an RV you got fucked. It should be 25-40% off MSRP
 

NicPaus

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If you pay MSRP on an RV you got fucked. It should be 25-40% off MSRP
I know. I talked my buddy out of a pusher few months ago. Dealership had it new for 40k over msrp. He was telling me it was last one and he had to buy now. Lucky for him some one else bought it. By next year it would be worth 80k less than what he was going to pay. He was going to trade in his gas motorhome and lose 20k from when he bought it 2 months prior. He has used it a few times and now wants it out of his driveway but storage is $$$. Told him to sell it now while market is hot.
 

boatnam2

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If you pay MSRP on an RV you got fucked. It should be 25-40% off MSRP
Been to a few RV places and your not getting no deals on limited stock on hand unless its something they want to dump., plenty of people paying full pop or more.
 

boatnam2

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I know. I talked my buddy out of a pusher few months ago. Dealership had it new for 40k over msrp. He was telling me it was last one and he had to buy now. Lucky for him some one else bought it. By next year it would be worth 80k less than what he was going to pay. He was going to trade in his gas motorhome and lose 20k from when he bought it 2 months prior. He has used it a few times and now wants it out of his driveway but storage is $$$. Told him to sell it now while market is hot.
I will take it for 40% off ;)
 

NicPaus

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I will take it for 40% off ;)
I will ask him. Same buddy I got the last 2 sets of skis from. He likes to buy and not use stuff. I should of kept 1 of the skis or bought yours. Now market is crazy!
 

boatnam2

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I will ask him. Same buddy I got the last 2 sets of skis from. He likes to buy and not use stuff. I should of kept 1 of the skis or bought yours. Now market is crazy!
Yea you aren't getting anything close to what i had for 10k, plus trailer, i tried to hook you up. You can get a 2011 for 11k at long beach motor sports lol
 

RiverDave

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We've stepped back for now.
No one wants to own anything they paid too much for. Especially way too much and everyone knows it - especially the wife.

We like to buy new.
We'll throw some offers out there at boat show displays, leave our contact number and maybe they'll call us if the floor model doesn't move at the show. It's worked before.
Twin Cities Boat Show starts the 15th.

Heart set on 400's.
BTW 450's are twice the price of 400's now.

call Jack at Pacific Marine center in Madera he is 20k cheaper than anyone else.
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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All I know is the dirt toys always seem to be bought in greater numbers on shaky financial ground than boats for some reason.
My circle of freinds that lost stuff in 09’ lost way more sand cars and RV’s than boats.

Dirt has a lower barrier to entry.
 
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NicPaus

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Yea you aren't getting anything close to what i had for 10k, plus trailer, i tried to hook you up. You can get a 2011 for 11k at long beach motor sports lol
I got a container spot finally. Trying to buy a 45' container this week. I need more storage Lol.
 

boatnam2

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I got a container spot finally. Trying to buy a 45' container this week. I need more storage Lol.
We will be there memorial, got spot next to ramp. Hopefully we will see you.
 

Long Way Home

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Old blues song -You'll never see a U-Haul behind a hearse. When it comes to time, each of us has a finite, limited amount of time on this earth. If we are successful in life, it is likely that we have more money than we have time to spend it. I think it’s reasonable to spend the money you earned to enjoy your remaining years as time becomes more valuable as we age because we have less of it. Have fun before you reach an age where you can barely move.
Yesterday is history learn from it, you only have today so enjoy it and hope for a tomorrow.
 

v6toy4x

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Home equity, rise and fall
Rinse and repeat
 

baja-chris

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call Jack at Pacific Marine center in Madera he is 20k cheaper than anyone else.

Truth there. Jack sold me a 2021 Avalon 27 with twin 350's for quite a bit less than anywhere else, will take delivery in April when we get back from our RV trip.
I had a deal/deposit on a 25ft Avalon with single 400 elsewhere but Avalon could not deliver what I ordered so I was given a refund. Jack set me up with twin 350's for not a lot more than the single 400 including triple axle trailer with EOH disks.

BTW, regarding the pending housing correction triggered by the end of the mortgage forbearances, unemployment is dropping and many of those who took the forbearance will have jobs by the time they have to resume loan payments and may land on their feet so I think that will soften the blow somewhat.
 

HTMike

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I agree. But the way things are going, they will just extend this date. Just like unemployment, these idiots keep getting it pushed again and again. No one has any idea when the time will actual come.

They are out of runway and are barely keeping it together right now. This can wont be getting kicked down the road anymore. Rates are going to go up more aggressively ( my opinion ) to help circumvent run away inflation and the big banks want to kick the non payers out of their homes ASAP. I heard there were 17 Million homes tee'd up as of January.
 

DUNEFLYER

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What are the rules for the late mortgages to be paid back?
 

ONE-A-DAY

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If you pay MSRP on an RV you got fucked. It should be 25-40% off MSRP
I always buy mine at motorhome specialists in Alvarado Texas, largest dealer in the country. And if anyone pays msrp for a motorhome they are an idiot.
 

OldSchoolBoats

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What are the rules for the late mortgages to be paid back?
They just defer the backed payments. It either is a non interest bearing deferred balance or if an FHA loan, they record a jr. lien. These loans aren't late and have been reporting to the bureaus as current.

I know the doom and gloom crown hates to hear it, but there isn't going to be a RE crash.

Also, hate to burst some bubbles, but our team writes the most loans in Riverside County and I can tell you first hand that cash out refinances have been few and far between. Nobody is cashing out $100k and buying toys. Most are rate and term, that now have payments less than what a 2 bedroom apartment rents for. Because of that, supply is going to continue to be an issue.

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8dayz

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I thought if you were in forbearance it was not showing negative on your FICO score but it is reported that you are in fact in forbearance. So while your score is still what it is, banks won’t loan you $ for say a new auto loan until you come current? Or is it a completely free ride? Don’t pay even if you can, and then go borrow some more?
 

OldSchoolBoats

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Where have I heard this before?
Let’s check back to this in say 12 months. Deal? If you’re right I’ll buy you a 12 pk of beer. If I’m right you buy me a 12 pk of beer?
Gentlemen wager?
No problem. I will eat crow if I am wrong.

I just still can't find anyone who can provide any facts on HOW it will happen because in order for a severe price adjustment to occur, a huge influx of inventory would have to hit the market.

Where is that inventory going to come from??

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Boat 405

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No problem. I will eat crow if I am wrong.

I just still can't find anyone who can provide any facts on HOW it will happen because in order for a severe price adjustment to occur, a huge influx of inventory would have to hit the market.

Where is that inventory going to come from??

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They said the same thing in 2007. Everyone said it couldn’t happen. Until it did
 

OldSchoolBoats

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They said the same thing in 2007. Everyone said it couldn’t happen. Until it did
Can't tell you how many times we have heard that one over the past 7 years.

Comparing this market to that is like comparing apples to oranges.



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DWC

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I just happened to move back to So Cal at the peak in 2006. Owned the “most expensive” house on my block for a decade.
The question isn’t will it come down but when and how much. The last crash wasn’t normal. Based on history it shouldn’t happen again but definitely doesn’t mean it can’t. Anyone that bought from 95’ to 05’ probably still feels the pain and knows what can happen. People that bought from 2012 on probably think the train will never stop. Gonna be a hell of a ride.
PS. Had beers last weekend with a guy who had a huge house and 3-4 rentals in 07’. Guy said he was set for life. Was planning early retirement and loving life. Within a year he lost all properties, downsized and is plugging along. Pretty sure you couldn’t convince him it can’t happen again.

1170B9E6-F73A-4425-A734-7297C66C5E49.jpeg
 

LargeOrangeFont

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They just defer the backed payments. It either is a non interest bearing deferred balance or if an FHA loan, they record a jr. lien. These loans aren't late and have been reporting to the bureaus as current.

I know the doom and gloom crown hates to hear it, but there isn't going to be a RE crash.

Also, hate to burst some bubbles, but our team writes the most loans in Riverside County and I can tell you first hand that cash out refinances have been few and far between. Nobody is cashing out $100k and buying toys. Most are rate and term, that now have payments less than what a 2 bedroom apartment rents for. Because of that, supply is going to continue to be an issue.

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This x1000. No one is walking away from their home with a lower payment than rent, especially now that they have equity to lose.

People walked last time because they had 0 equity, paid basically 0 down, and an exploding monthly payment.

We are a year into this, past the worst of it, and still nothing on the horizon.

Commercial RE is going to be the problem.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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I just happened to move back to So Cal at the peak in 2006. Owned the “most expensive” house on my block for a decade.
The question isn’t will it come down but when and how much. The last crash wasn’t normal. Based on history it shouldn’t happen again but definitely doesn’t mean it can’t. Anyone that bought from 95’ to 05’ probably still feels the pain and knows what can happen. People that bought from 2012 on probably think the train will never stop. Gonna be a hell of a ride.
PS. Had beers last weekend with a guy who had a huge house and 3-4 rentals in 07’. Guy said he was set for life. Was planning early retirement and loving life. Within a year he lost all properties, downsized and is plugging along. Pretty sure you couldn’t convince him it can’t happen again.

View attachment 981135

I’m no prognosticator, but I see a mid 90s looking dip coming certainly in a couple years. That is a great chart. Even with the worst housing dip ever, you were at least made whole in about 10 years. And those prices 5 years ago are considered a bargain today.
 
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Singleton

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This x1000. No one is walking away from their home with a lower payment than rent, especially now that they have equity to lose.

People walked last time because they had 0 equity, paid basically 0 down, and an exploding monthly payment.

We are a year into this, past the worst of it, and still nothing on the horizon.

Commercial RE is going to be the problem.

winner
Commercial will be the trigger. Residential might go flat, but not like the last crash.
Companies going remote to reduce costs and not renewing leases. Lots of folks will be sitting on empty commercial properties
 

LargeOrangeFont

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winner
Commercial will be the trigger. Residential might go flat, but not like the last crash.
Companies going remote to reduce costs and not renewing leases. Lots of folks will be sitting on empty commercial properties

Im wondering if we are on the precipice of a different kind of housing experience. With all these commercial properties vacant, I see them being converted to ultra dense residential or communal residential units in places like CA.

This fits right into the liberal agenda as well, and would/could inject many liberal voters into republican strongholds.

It is either that or the buildings get leveled, land rezoned and condos/apartments are built.
 
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