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HitIt

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If I would have panicked I would have cost myself a bunch of money.

Yeah, I am wondering if this is a bit of a gift to those who missed the boat and didn't panic in Nov. Thinking of panicking now.
 

nowski

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January 2018 was a hot month just like this year but beware what may lie ahead in February...
 

Rajobigguy

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I like to average my returns over a 14 month period that way I take into account different sectors of at least 2 years and at times 3 years. Having said that , my 14 mo. running average right now is about 4.78%. I would like to see 5-6% gain during those periods but the year is still really early and what I've got so far is still pretty good. it's just not as much as I would like.
 

PaPaG

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Like I have always said if you are patient with the stock market and you have picked good solid stocks your chances of being ahead are GREAT, some of the best time to buy stocks is when the followers and fearful start selling out of fear from a little news...dig deep, make sure you understand all the financials of the stock you choose and good luck...Do the research, most investors that did not run away when the markets crashed that held great stocks are all up....
 

bowtiejunkie

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I have 20-25 years until retirement. I continue to invest via bi-weekly payroll contributions into what I've determined to be a good investments that balance the risk and long term gains I need to hit my retirement goals. When the market is tanking, I find it helps to just quit reading the doom and gloom. I can't possibly know what other people's risk, goals, financial position, and what stage of life they are in. So, trading based on one person/article/analyst's view or trade recommendation, does me zero good. I can't be bothered by timing the market short term when my goals are long term. If I were retired or nearly so, I would have my money allocated differently. But, I'm in the prime earning years of my life, investing regularly, so will stay the course, with minor adjustments as I see fit.
 

sirbob

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Had a call with my broker at 9am today - we are up 5.5% on the year so far. Haven't recovered from 4th qtr but it nice to see something positive.

He was telling me one of his clients sold every stock in her account on Jan 2...

In the end - different people have different tolerances for risk. Some because that's just the way they are, for others it's truly about age and need. At some point its smart to reduce any risk.
 

GRADS

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I bought Apple at $156 and then when it dipped at $147....should pay off in the long run...it already has a little.
 

stephenkatsea

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Had a call with my broker at 9am today - we are up 5.5% on the year so far. Haven't recovered from 4th qtr but it nice to see something positive.

He was telling me one of his clients sold every stock in her account on Jan 2...

In the end - different people have different tolerances for risk. Some because that's just the way they are, for others it's truly about age and need. At some point its smart to reduce any risk.

Agreed. Just prior to the recession of 2008, and I was still working, I placed our entire 401K in the Merril Lynch money market account. Worked out well. Lost nothing. Actually gained a few dollars. Then upon retirement converted to a Schwab IRA and reallocated monies accordingly.
 

LuauLounge

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My self managed account was up 7% for 2018 and today I'm up 7.5% YTD.
Most are stocks I bought 20 years ago and forgot about.
 

DWC

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I actually sent our guy a note saying “sorry” today.
 

Halvecto

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"Great kid, Don't get cocky" - Chewbacca (Star Wars)

Since June 2018, S&P500 is down approx 5%. Q4 saw the index drop 14%. Keep in mind, which I'm guessing you all do, the % gains are coming from a lower level, so the dollar moves will have greater % results. Stocks are back to about Mid-December levels and it has taken a rip-roaring start to the year to just get back to here.

For example, Q4 performance from:
S&P500 peak to low: -19.34%
S&P500 low to date: +13.71%
Return from Peak to date: -9.24%

So, that 19% drop now requires a 24% gain to get back and we are no where near the high yet.

One of the greatest impediments to long term compounding, is large losses. The math is debilitating. Never let your V8 become a 4-cylinder, the loss of HP is detrimental.

I realize it's easy to say don't lose and hard to implement without missing the up, which is by definition necessary. I don't believe consistently succeeding at market-timing is possible, but large loss avoidance is.

That said, exits are only as valuable as the re-entry. Both need a plan and discipline.


My self managed account was up 7% for 2018 and today I'm up 7.5% YTD.
Most are stocks I bought 20 years ago and forgot about.

Whoa, that is great. Curious what stock was around 20 years ago that is seeing that kind of move this year. Most of the big movers this year are oil stocks (which got pummeled in Q4) and the tech names that got hammered last year.
 
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Halvecto

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Some of you like this kind of analytics stuff. Here is a quick spreadsheet I created. You can input your stock, ETF or Mutual Fund symbol (upper left: cell B3) and get some recent results:

How is my stock doing lately?

  • The rest of the spreadsheet is locked, but will be updating live (when US stock market is open).
  • Performance is price change only. No dividends are included.
  • If a mutual fund symbol, keep in mind that many of them paid cap gains distributions in Q4, which is not reflected in this performance.
Feel free to check your symbols and try others.
 
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CarolynandBob

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I am 52 and have a 40 yr plan. Not going to worry about what happens 1 year to the next. Stay the course and enjoy.
 
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DB / HAV

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I am 52 and have a 40 yr plan. Not going to worry about what happens 1 year to the next. Stay the course and enjoy.


Yup, dollar cost averaging! Everyone wants to buy when the market is up and everyone wants to sell when the market goes down...not a good way to get ahead. Buy solid growth mutual funds, divest & keep investing regularly until you get close to retirement. Should work out well. Look at 5 & 10 year averages- most good, strong funds have done extreme well.
 
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